With the conflict in Ukraine showing no sign of ending despite US diplomatic efforts and the Russian threat on its borders, the capital of Lithuania has decided to prepare for a possible war scenario. Vilnius Mayor Valdas Benkunskas presented an evacuation plan structured in three main escape routes to the west, stressing that “historically the enemy has always arrived from the east“.
The mayor specified that the goal is “not to create panic“, but to ensure “coordination between institutions” and trust in the defense forces, hoping that the plan will never have to be activated. The capital of the Baltic country has over 600 thousand inhabitants and is located just 30 kilometers from Belarus, a nation allied with Russia and used as a base by Russian troops at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.
The plan calls for the total evacuation of the city within 48 hours and also responds to potential natural threats or accidents at the Belarusian nuclear power plant in Ostrovets, which is located about 50 kilometers from the city. The plant is considered unsafe by the Lithuanian authorities, who have already distributed iodine tablets and organized decontamination exercises. Next autumn, however, there will be tests of the plan presented by the mayor.
The governments of all Baltic countries, not just that of Lithuania, fear that Russia could replicate the scenario already seen at the dawn of the invasion of Ukraine, also in view of the Zapad military exercises that Moscow and Minsk will hold in September.
At the moment, however, the opening of a new front by Moscow seems unlikely. Its military resources are concentrated in Ukraine, where Russian troops are advancing slowly and at the price of heavy losses. Kiev forces still control part of the Russian province of Kursk and have conducted raids in the Belgorod oblast.
In response to the Russian operation, NATO has intensified its military presence in Eastern Europe, deploying multinational battalions in countries such as Estonia, Latvia and Poland. In this scenario, Germany is taking on an increasingly role, positioning its troops in Lithuania as part of a strategic effort to ensure the collective security of its Eastern European allies.
The Bundeswehr explains how crucial its active participation within the Atlantic Alliance is for Germany. After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, about twenty Eastern European countries perceived a radical change in the threat landscape, which led to a pressing need to strengthen defense capabilities.
In response to these challenges, Berlin decided to establish a brigade in Lithuania, consisting of about 5,000 soldiers. The composition will include mechanized infantry units, including the 122nd Mechanized Infantry Battalion in Oberviechtach and the 203rd Tank Battalion in Augustdorf, accompanied by logistical and medical support. This phased approach reflects a strategic and planned commitment to ensure that the forces are ready and adequately equipped, with the aim of having the troop fully operational by the second quarter of 2025.
The Bundeswehr makes it known that the sending of troops to Lithuania does not represent a violation of the NATO-Russia Foundation of 1997, since the security conditions have changed drastically, thus justifying the need for an adjustment. This new set-up, which will also involve the integration of multinational units, aims not only to ensure effective deterrence, but also to convey a clear message: “an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on the entire alliance“.