Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions so far have not been a game-changer. Instead, they have created additional motivation for states to find ways to get around US and EU in the future. As noted in Foreign Policy: “Russia, Iran, China, and other countries at odds with the United States are doubling down on efforts to vaccinate their economies against sanctions. These measures have little to do with sanctions circumvention. Instead, they represent preemptive steps to render potential financial sanctions entirely ineffective. Such mechanisms include de-dollarization efforts, the development of alternatives to SWIFT, and the creation of central bank digital currencies”. Then, without a common will to dialogue, only the military deterrent is left.

NATO is holding a summit on July 11-12 in Lithuania. The three Baltic states, which have a combined population of about 6 million, are largely made up of flat forested terrain that is squeezed between the Baltic Sea to the west and north and Russia and its ally Belarus to the east. Russia and Belarus have military bases along the border.

Lithuania is the only one to have a land link to a fellow NATO ally, Poland. The border, in the so-called Suwalki Gap, is a stretch of forest that lies between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave. “Russia considers the Baltic states to be the most vulnerable part of NATO, which would make them a focus of military pressure in the event of a NATO-Russia conflict“, Estonian counterintelligence said in a report in 2023.

Since 1991, the Baltics have sought to deepen their ties to Western allies with integration into NATO and the EU. They have also built close ties to the United States. They have been among the most hawkish on how the West and others respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. All three have lobbied NATO to outline a path for Ukraine to become an alliance member and have pressed for tougher sanctions on Moscow.

As reported by Reuters, spurred by Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the three Baltic states sharply increased military spending. They are in the top 10 in NATO in terms of how much they spend compared to the size of their economies. According to NATO estimates for 2022, they exceeded the NATO agreement to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defense.

But their economies are small and so are their militaries.

Since 2017, NATO has rotated three battlegroups through the region with a total of about 3,000 troops, provided by Germany, Britain, and Canada. The deployment of 1,000 soldiers in each state was designed as a deterrent to slow any attack.

And since the invasion of Ukraine, the Baltics have requested the forces deployed are beefed up to 3,000-5,000 troops in each state. They have also requested extra air defenses and asked that warplanes that patrol their airspace become a fighting force.

• Germany would permanently deploy 4,000 troops in Lithuania in a few years, once Lithuania builds the infrastructure to house them.
• Estonian officials said their defense needs had been met by a British fighting force, which is based outside the country but can be deployed to Estonia within days in a crisis.
• Canada pledged to double its NATO-mandated deployment in Latvia with up to 1,200 more troops to secure against any Russian aggression.