It’s citizens who pay market distortions and inflation policies
In Poland, second-round effects thrive in an environment of expansionary fiscal policy, buoyant wages growth, and consumption boom.
In Poland, second-round effects thrive in an environment of expansionary fiscal policy, buoyant wages growth, and consumption boom.
In March the deficit in the CAB was up by 2.6 times due to an increase in the foreign trade deficit. The annual inflation growth rate stands at 15.6%.
In Latvia, inflation projections for 2022 and 2023 have been revised upwards. The uptrend in prices is driven by several factors, mainly political.
The Bank of Poland takes its main rate to 4.5%, projecting 6.5% this year and 7.5% in 2023. Meanwhile, companies are passing higher costs on to CPI.
The conflict in Ukraine has created another excuse to blame inflation on oil and natural gas, rather than the increase in the money supply.
Household consumption will keep sustaining the Polish economic growth o\in 2022, and high producer prices will be passed on to final consumers.
GDP and consumption booms continue, but price-wage spiral too, as consequence of expansionary economic policy in recent years.
The example of Estonia suggests that the focus on an efficient allocation of resources works more effectively than a stimulus of demand.
NBP action lags behind other CEE central banks, while authorities pretend the elevated CPI to be a result of external supply shocks.
The risk of wage-price spirals is increasing in front of labour shortages, commodity prices, and the tax changes introduced in the new “Polish Deal”.