
Export and housing down amid rising costs of credit
Upward pressure from commodity prices continues and symptoms of a marked economic slowdown are visible in the construction industry.
Upward pressure from commodity prices continues and symptoms of a marked economic slowdown are visible in the construction industry.
In Q1 employment in Estonia rose by 5.1% YoY, giving hope on the ability to absorb the shock of a fiscal and monetary tightening.
In Poland, second-round effects thrive in an environment of expansionary fiscal policy, buoyant wages growth, and consumption boom.
In March the deficit in the CAB was up by 2.6 times due to an increase in the foreign trade deficit. The annual inflation growth rate stands at 15.6%.
In Latvia, inflation projections for 2022 and 2023 have been revised upwards. The uptrend in prices is driven by several factors, mainly political.
The Bank of Poland takes its main rate to 4.5%, projecting 6.5% this year and 7.5% in 2023. Meanwhile, companies are passing higher costs on to CPI.
The conflict in Ukraine has created another excuse to blame inflation on oil and natural gas, rather than the increase in the money supply.
Household consumption will keep sustaining the Polish economic growth o\in 2022, and high producer prices will be passed on to final consumers.
GDP and consumption booms continue, but price-wage spiral too, as consequence of expansionary economic policy in recent years.
The example of Estonia suggests that the focus on an efficient allocation of resources works more effectively than a stimulus of demand.