
Appearances are deceiving: inflation is in an upward trend
While analysts predict disinflation, Poland faces increasing energy prices for households linked to higher indirect tax rates. And food prices continue to rise.
While analysts predict disinflation, Poland faces increasing energy prices for households linked to higher indirect tax rates. And food prices continue to rise.
In Estonia, consumers have not been able to keep pace with inflation in recent months, and retail sales volumes have started to fall.
Lithuania’s economy keeps growing (1.3% in 2023). But the stabilization is fragile, and the balance of risks is negative. The global outlook is worsening.
The forecasts for Latvia see a persistently high degree of uncertainty. GDP is revised downwards to 2.1%, with a 5.6% contraction in household consumption.
In Poland, the risk of annual growth falling to negative is high. And building construction will be one of the weakest spots of the domestic economy in 2023.
In 2021 the USA was the main investor in the country. Last September, the deficit on the current account balance slightly narrowed.
Despite the strong scores in the regulatory and legal frameworks, Estonia has more people unemployed than before the pandemic.
In Latvia, the second half of this year and the beginning of 2023 will see an even stronger slowdown of economic growth and energy resources.
Elevated inflation is weighing on the propensity to consume and keeps undermining the purchasing power, while GDP growth decelerates.
Estonia has to cope with very high inflation and a recession in the second half of the year when the economy will decline by 3%. Perfect economic storm.