
Low competitiveness is the price for a persistent core inflation
In Estonia, the price of electricity in April was 29% higher than the previous month. While GDP is expected to decline by 1.2% this year.
In Estonia, the price of electricity in April was 29% higher than the previous month. While GDP is expected to decline by 1.2% this year.
Elevated inflation reduces purchasing power and increases the risk of low investment and deteriorating competitiveness.
High inflation has translated not only into a decline in real purchasing power, but also in construction- (-1.5%) and industrial production (-2.9%) drops.
Despite the optimistic forecast, inflation in Latvia remains among the highest in the euro area. Investment growth prospects have not improved.
A GDP contraction of –0.3% is predicted for this year in Lithuania, with +2.7% growth in 2024. Inflation to decrease more slowly than expected.
Poland will temporarily stop all imports of grain from Ukraine. How additional restrictions to free markets would now improve the outlook?
The Polish industrial production fell 1.2% YoY, with GDP growth down to 1% in Q1. Wages continue to feed inflation, putting pressure on real disposable incomes.
The rapid growth in wages drives domestic inflation. While higher energy prices, reduced access to raw materials, and weaker demand hamper exports.
Central banks are normally cited as the entities who fix the economy by disinflation, not those who broke the market by causing inflation.
While the global economic situation is deteriorating, the focus should be reversed on GDP growth and net exports, targeting core inflation.