
Polish focus is on wages and demand, not production
The risk of wage-price spirals is increasing in front of labour shortages, commodity prices, and the tax changes introduced in the new “Polish Deal”.
The risk of wage-price spirals is increasing in front of labour shortages, commodity prices, and the tax changes introduced in the new “Polish Deal”.
Estonia showed one of the fastest recoveries from the crisis with an economic growth of 8%. However, a slow down is now expected.
GDP growth projections for 2021-22 have been revised downwards, hit by shortages of materials, equipment, labour and rising energy costs.
In Latvia, real GDP has decelerated, hit by production and supply disruptions. The growth of purchasing power is uneven and exceeded by wages.
In Estonia, inflation of 7% in October was caused by a sharp rise in energy prices and blockages in the supply chain. Demand is driving an economic growth.
Polish construction output is forecast to level off in 2021, and to rebound by more than 7% in 2022. Profit margins will deteriorate and fail to increase further.
The Polish economy continues to grow, driven by two engines: industry and services. Next year, demand and wage pressure will be the key drivers of inflation.
Latvia’s GDP growth estimates for 2021 have been revised upwards to 5.3%, as well as inflation which is expected to reach 5% by the end of the year.
ING estimates strong price pressure due to the continued rise in fuel, food and energy. In August, PPI accelerated to 9.5% YoY.
The Latvian central bank indicates an increase in GDP of 3.3% this year and 6.5% in 2022. Budget deficit and inflation forecasts are revised upwards.