Inflation and taxes make the checkmate one step closer
Inflation over 2024 remained high following the food commodities on global markets. Wage pressures will be key for steering the future.
Inflation over 2024 remained high following the food commodities on global markets. Wage pressures will be key for steering the future.
Poland forecasts economic growth amounting to 2.7%, poor development in the current account, and upward pressure on core price increases.
Lithuania is expected to grow by 2.2%, where ICT alone has been outpacing the entire economy. Beware the sluggish exports.
Investment has remained stable and expectations of decline have lessened, it is now essential to reduce the debt burden of the public sector.
Economic growth is still based on one pillar, and that’s consumption. With a persistently high core inflation, the question is: for how long?
In Poland, the energy shield withdrawal brings prices for house energy to rise, core to increase, and CPI to remain at elevated levels.
In Poland, construction output (-8.9% YoY ) was weaker than expected, while retail sales data indicates that sentiment remains cautious.
GDP growth in Q2 2024 was close to 3% YoY only thanks to consumption. Solid market economy will be back only upon the expiration of minimum wage policy.
Despite the consumer basket being 2.5% more expensive YoY, inflation expectations have fallen – only waiting for energy prices to climb for seasonal reasons.
This year Lithuania will grow by 2% and accelerate to more than 3% in 2025-26 driven by consumption and exports. However, risks arise from demographics and taxation.