Unemployment has risen: consumption and investment face a higher level of uncertainty and a decline in capacity utilization induced by lower demand.
While the restrictions were similar to EU partners, the economic damage was much less: great opportunities from infrastructure, logistics and high-tech.
The 2020 recession is due to a fall in consumption representing 58% of GDP. The industry is expected to be driven by housing demand and major infrastructures.
While the reduction in foreign demand was responsible for two-thirds of the 2020 recession, industry and ICT will rebound this year.
Last year Poland recorded current account surpluses in each month, accounting for 18.4 billion euros. But retail sales fell 6.0% YoY in January.
The lack of investment weighs on real prospects and opportunities in the medium to long term, as private investment has been below the EU average for years.
Great hope is placed on the active contributions of ICT technologies, where growth in Latvian industry this year could reach 3-4%.
Private consumption will remain strong thanks to rising incomes, pension indexation, higher minimum wages and a vibrant labour market.
Latvian GDP growth fell by -9.2% and the current account deficit is on the rise. Loans to the private sector are held back by an extensive informal sector.
The diversified economic structure and low exposure to sectors affected by the pandemic allow Warsaw to contain the recession.