Poland: the export decrease weights on the BOP
Last November the downward trend in export goods continued (-8.3% to 12 months prior). The value of goods imports decreased by 13.8%.
Last November the downward trend in export goods continued (-8.3% to 12 months prior). The value of goods imports decreased by 13.8%.
Last November the surplus on the CAB decreased by 34.3%, where the trade balance suffers alongside exports (services -3.2%).
Market expectations of rapid disinflation remain, but underlying risks come from commodity costs, monetary supply, and trade protectionism.
The core inflation is persistently higher than headline, while expansionary fiscal policy increases the pressure and weaken the competitiveness.
The current decline in Estonia’s exports is more a reflection of the weakness in foreign markets and the problems with competitiveness.
In an open system, economic transformation led by the freedom of private initiative requires to focus on the amelioration of market exchange.
The transparency in public finance is key for better controlling public spending: with 5.5-6% of GDP Warsaw has the highest deficit in the EU.
Estonian banks’ profits have grown fast when the income on loans linked to Euribor increased. Now risks come from loan losses at the window.
Estonia receives more financials from abroad than it is investing: services exports drop (-2% YoY), and the consolidated debt grows +9% YoY.
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