In January, Poland recorded a current account deficit of €168 million, as a result of deficits in goods trade (€1.5 billion), primary income account (€1.6 billion), and secondary income account (€0.7 billion), and a surplus in services trade (€3.6 billion). On a twelve-month basis, the current account balance deteriorated to a deficit of -0.1 of GDP in January from a surplus of 0.1% of GDP in the previous month. The trade balance worsened accordingly to -1.1% from -0.8% a month earlier.

January did not bring significant changes in goods trade trends from previous months, but the difference in import and export dynamics widened further. Goods exports in euros fell by 0.7% YoY (from -0.3%), while imports jumped by 9.9% YoY from 3.9% a month earlier. According to the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the weak export performance continued in transport equipment, including automotive parts and passenger and commercial vehicles, while exports of agricultural products increased. At the same time, imports of consumer goods, agricultural products, and fuels (due to higher global commodity prices) increased. A decline was noted in the import of transport equipment, including car parts.

In 2025, ING expects a current account deficit of 1.3% of GDP, mainly due to the further increase in the goods deficit and the persistence of income deficits, which will not be offset by the surplus in services trade. Analysts see several barriers to export growth and room for import growth with the acceleration of domestic demand and military purchases.

A moderate deterioration of the current account balance is slightly negative for the zloty. However, the PLN exchange rate is supported by the growing interest rate disparity between Poland and the eurozone (the ECB continues its cycle of interest rate cuts in 2025, while the NBP has not changed interest rates and maintains a hawkish perspective) and the inflow of EU funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and Cohesion Policy.

The NBP has maintained its hawkish policy stance, but alleged data from the beginning of 2025 suggests the conditions for monetary easing are starting to emerge. According to the narrative, headline and core inflation surprised to the downside, while wage growth has moderated after three years of double-digit growth. ING sees room for 100bp of cuts this year, thanks to the timid start to the year in economic activity.

Unfortunately, as long as the economic growth will be focused merely on fueling consumption rather than production and export while investment is backed by RRF rather than competitive market allocation, the light at the end of the tunnel will only be foreseen.