According to preliminary estimates by the Central Statistical Institute, in Poland real GDP is expected to fall by 2.8% year on year over the past year. During the whole of 2020, household consumption decreased by 3% compared to the previous year, while investment decreased by 8.4%, which translates into a decrease of -10.7% in the fourth quarter. Net exports have provided strong support for GDP, as reflected in the rebound in manufacturing over the past three months. As in other countries, the latter showed a diminishing impact of the pandemic on GDP: economies, supported by huge fiscal packages, have adjusted to administrative anti-pandemic constraints. While the number of Covid cases during this period was much higher than in the spring, the index of economic restrictions indicates that those associated with the second wave of the pandemic in Poland were a quarter to a half less onerous.

Analysts estimate that in 2021, GDP in Poland should make up for the pandemic losses. While the seasonality of regular flu, slow vaccination progress, and new Covid-19 mutations call for a cautious outlook in the first quarter, GDP is still expected to rebound, as of the second quarter. Achieving herd immunity might take longer than previously expected, but as soon as the vulnerable parts of the population are vaccinated, governments should be pushed to lift restrictions, and this should trigger a rebound in consumer demand. Household savings have increased strongly during the pandemic and spending this money will result in a strong rebound in consumption and GDP. On average, it is estimated that household consumption could grow by 5.0% in real terms this year.

However, the outlook for private investment is expected to be worse and the growth structure will be in favor of inflation. In Poland, private investment as a percentage of GDP has been below the EU average for years and in the third quarter of 2020 reached the lowest level as a percentage of GDP in recent history. Although private investment is expected to increase from the second quarter of this year, this will be reduced to a reduced extent: investment demand will not return to the pre-pandemic level, at least until the second half of 2022, unless there is a significant acceleration in the spending of EU funds. Here then, for 2021, GDP growth is estimated at 4.5%, supported by the rebound in private demand. The potential is quite different.