Poland has a vast territory, a population of almost 40 million inhabitants, and unemployment that in April 2021 amounted to 3.1% and was the lowest in the whole EU. After Brexit, the country became the fifth largest economy in Europe, with GDP growing at an average of 4% in the decade 2009-19, without registering any period of recession. As a result, per capita income also grew at an average rate of 5.3%. The progressive improvement in the standard of living is confirmed by the entry of an increasing number of citizens into the so-called middle class, and this translates into increased interest in imported products, and great opportunities from energy and automotive. In addition to being highly competitive, SACE ranks Poland as a highly safe country, ranking second in the Export Opportunity Index, on par with Germany.

Poland has a great propensity for both incoming and outgoing foreign trade, although it remains very dependent on its European partners, to whom it directs 80% of total exports. The balance of trade with Europe is, however, positive, since European imports amount to 59% of the total. This means that there is a great deal of room for maneuvering for companies, especially those that will be able to take advantage of the opportunities offered by post-Covid support policies.

Under the Next Generation EU, Warsaw will receive €58.1 billion, of which €23.9 billion in non-repayable loans and €34.2 billion in loans, to be invested in:
• green energy and reduction of energy consumption (6.3 billion);
• smart green mobility (6.1 billion);
• efficiency, accessibility, and quality of the health system (4.3 billion);
• resilience and competitiveness of the economy (4.1 billion);
• digital transformation (3 billion).

Here then are the sectors in which a high development potential is guaranteed, and therefore excellent business opportunities are energy, in particular renewables, automotive, and agri-food.

Poland is going through a phase of the energy transition, since its energy production is still strongly linked to coal and lignite, on the extraction of which many jobs depend. The government is trying to implement a policy that replaces coal as a form of energy, but at the same time guarantees employment in mining areas. The target to be achieved is set for 2050 when 28% of coal is expected to be used as energy and an increase in nuclear energy and gas-fired power plants. Lately, especially for private homes and transport, there has been a boom in demand for hydrogen energy and photovoltaics: the latter, in particular, is essential for the new “zero emissions” plan, which provides for a lowering of the energy consumption limit threshold for the construction of new buildings.

The main opportunities are identified in the following sub-sectors:
• sale of components of photovoltaic systems;
• deliveries of photovoltaic cells and silicon disks;
• extension and modernization of energy distribution networks;
• energy storage facilities;
• fire protection;
• know-how and services for component production and assembly;
• implementation of business models for cooperatives, communities, and energy clusters.

If we look at the automotive sector, Poland currently has a share of about 4% of the value of EU production and is one of the most important production centers for many operators in the sector, including Volkswagen, FCA (Fiat), PSA (Opel), MAN. In addition, about two-thirds of the largest component manufacturers have production facilities in Poland, including Michelin, Bridgestone, Brembo, Lear, ZF Friedrichshafen/TRW, Faurecia, Valeo, Denso. The sector, which is already deeply rooted in Poland, nevertheless needs new technologies that follow current market trends, such as electric or hydrogen vehicles. This element has the potential to replace conventional fuels, in particular in urban transport (buses), road transport (heavy and long-distance), rail transport (locomotives and traction vehicles equipped with fuel cells and batteries), maritime transport, and, in the long term, in aviation, with new synthetic fuels obtained by reacting hydrogen with CO, CO₂. In addition, progress must be made in green components and battery disposal, a great investment opportunity.

Last, but not least, is the agri-food sector, where the distribution chain has changed since 2010: whereas before the supplier was unique for a shop or restaurant, now we rely more on specialized suppliers, who deal with a specific sector, ensuring a better quality of the product.

In Poland, the increase in production is mainly driven by domestic demand and foreign orders have expanded at a similar pace to that seen in March, the highest levels in more than 7 years. At the same time, production backlogs continue to grow, reaching record levels: on the one hand, this reflects strong demand, but supply chain disruptions, such as the global semiconductor shortage, are also weighing. Employment in the manufacturing sector is expanding at the fastest pace since 2017: there is no longer any need to replace quarantined workers, and this signals an effective expansion of production capacity and high wage growth. And sub-indices related to production, orders, and employment are at the highest levels since 2014-17.

At the same time, indexes assessing arrears and purchases of own supplies are the highest since 2003-2004, and price components have reached their highest levels for the fourth consecutive month. Companies also report strong price pressures, both in terms of inputs and finished products: this goes hand in hand with the high PPI, both domestically and internationally (for example, in China), and reflects the increase in the prices of components, transport, and labor. At this point, producers just have to pass on the rising costs to consumers given the strong demand: here then ING confirms high inflation for the coming months.