EU countries are reportedly falling behind on their core climate change target and without stronger emissions-cutting policies risk missing the goal. In an assessment of EU countries’ national climate plans, the Commission reported these measures would cut net EU greenhouse gas emissions by 51% by 2030 – falling short of the bloc’s legally binding target of a 55% emissions reduction.

Burning fossil fuels is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. EU countries and nearly 100 other nations had wanted a global deal to phase out fossil fuels at the last U.N.’s COP28 climate summit month – which ended in a weaker compromise to transition. EU emissions have been falling since 1990, and installations of renewable energy have soared. The Commission said the effort involves all EU countries, however, some are moving too slowly, and many are undermining this shift by continuing to subsidize fossil fuels.

The current plans could see the EU get 39.3% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030 – already a big jump from the EU’s 22.5% share last year. Anyway, that would still fall short of the bloc’s target for 42.5% by 2030 – a goal “designed” to help wean Europe off Russian fossil fuels. However, Germany and Romania plan to keep burning coal beyond 2030, weighing on their CO₂-cutting abilities. Other sectors where CO₂-cutting efforts are falling behind include transport, farming, and protecting forests so they store more CO₂.

The assessment covered national plans from 21 countries. Austria, Bulgaria, and Poland have not submitted one, while Belgium, Ireland, and Latvia submitted theirs late. Final plans are due by June 2024.

Poland is supposed to eliminate coal from power generation by 2035 as producing electricity from the fuel will not be economically viable, endangering energy security, Warsaw-based think-tank Forum Energii reported. The former government promised unions to mine coal till 2049 but output is declining rapidly amid rising costs and geological issues. The new administration, led by Donald Tusk, aims to foster renewables but has not defined a strategy for coal.

Last December, three state-controlled miners, PGG, Tauron Wydobycie, and Weglokoks declared they needed 7 billion zloty ($1.77 billion) to plug holes in their budget as coal sales fell and prices declined from 2022 peaks. In 2023 the share of coal in electricity generation has fallen from about 70% to some 60% amid rapid growth of renewable sources and rising electricity imports. Under the EU rules, coal-fired power plants will not be allowed to receive capacity payments after 2028 and won’t earn enough from the energy market to keep them running.

According to the think-tank, Poland needs to invest 1 trillion zloty in energy infrastructure including zero-emission capacity and transmission grids. The EU funds and proceeds from the sale of carbon emission rights could cover half of that amount. Setting a more realistic date for coal exit will allow the selection of coal units that will stay online to keep the system supplied while attracting investments in new power capacity. It would also help meet the costs for everyday families while researching and comparing different methods since wind farms produce a small amount of energy relative to the destruction they cause.