The European Commission could approve EU-funded national recovery plans for Poland and Hungary in November but will set conditions linked to respect for the rule of law for the release of EU funds. The plans of Poland and Hungary and 25 other European Union countries are part of the Recovery Fund to revive the economy after the coronavirus pandemic through grants and low-cost loans to be disbursed until 2026. If approved, Poland could get €23 billion in EU grants and €34 billion in low-cost loans, while Hungary can expect €7.2 billion in grants in the coming years. How affordable is a political fight?

While the plans of 19 other countries have already received the green light and the first billions of pre-financing have been disbursed, Warsaw and Budapest have been waiting for months for the green light. The Commission’s approval is stalled as the EU believes that the ruling parties in both countries are undermining the independence of the courts, the media, and non-governmental organizations and, in Hungary, have a problem with corruption. The Polish nationalist government also refuses to implement the verdicts of the EU Supreme Court. These shortcomings have been listed in what the EU calls country-specific recommendations issued annually by the Commission to all member countries. The resumption of these recommendations is a condition for the approval of EU grants and loans under the recovery program.

Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal on Thursday postponed for the fourth time a ruling on whether the country’s constitution or European Union treaties take precedence, with critics saying Warsaw may be stalled to try to pressure Brussels. The Tribunal began hearing the case in July but had already adjourned it three times before Thursday’s sitting. The head of the Tribunal, Julia Przylebska, said that the sitting would be adjourned to 7 October.

Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) government is involved in a number of disputes with the EU over issues ranging from courts and media freedom to LGBT+ rights. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki brought the case in March as part of a conflict over changes to the country’s judicial system. The EU has accused the government of politicizing the courts, including the Constitutional Tribunal. European Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said the judicial challenge is holding back €57 billion ($48 billion) in EU aid to recover from the pandemic.

Some critics argue that delaying the Tribunal’s verdict is an attempt to pressure Brussels to accept Poland’s plan. For its part, the majority PiS party says Brussels has no right to interfere with member states’ justice systems and argues that reforms are necessary to remove the communist-era influence in the judiciary. At the same time, it denies having any influence on court decisions. Forgetting that the primacy of European laws over national ones is a key principle of European integration.

To further strengthen the link between respect for the principle of democratic division of EU power, the bloc agreed to protect EU money from misuse through a special rule of law mechanism that came into force on 1 January. Dissatisfied with the connection between respect for the rule of law and access to EU funds, Poland and Hungary challenged the mechanism at the EU Supreme Court in March, and the Commission said it would wait for the verdict before applying the law. The verdict is expected by the end of the year or early 2022.

However, under pressure from the European Parliament, which wants the law to be implemented as soon as possible, the Commission is likely to take the first legal steps under the mechanism in the coming weeks. Access to billions of euros from the EU Recovery Fund is crucial for Poland’s highly Eurosceptic governing coalition to support the drop in delivery before the next elections in 2023, as well as for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party, which will face elections in April 2022.