2023-08-26

Election big spending is only a victory for inflation

Poland plans to raise spending on defence, health, social benefits and public sector pay in 2024, after the government approved the budget for next year with an eye on elections scheduled for Oct. 15, Reuters reported. A victory for inflation is being paved.

The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has already won two elections in part thanks to generous social benefit programmes, has put security at the core of its campaign this year amid fears of rising instability on the country’s eastern border with Belarus.

However, some economists warn that big-spending policies announced ahead of the elections could hamper the county’s fight against inflation, which was 10.8% in July, and raise the deficit to dangerous levels.

In fact, the government will spend over 4% of GDP on defence in 2024 and 137 billion zlotys on raises for public-sector workers and on social programmes like the 800+ child benefit scheme. Moreover, additional payments to pensioners have been promised. It will also spend over 190 billion zlotys on health.

Inflation is not about a general increase in prices; it is about increases in the money supply. It is not the symptoms of a disease, but rather the disease itself that causes the damage. It is not a general rise in prices but an increase in the money supply that inflicts physical damage on wealth generators. Increases in the money supply set in motion an exchange of nothing for something. They divert real savings away from wealth generators toward the holders of the newly created money. This is what sets in motion the misallocation of resources.

The budget deficit will be around 4.5% of GDP, compared to the 3.4% forecast in April when Poland submitted its convergence plan to the EU. In 2024 the EU restores the fiscal rules, so a deficit above 3% of GDP will be clearly above the limits that will be set in the European Union’s fiscal criteria.

Additionally, Poland’s plans to revamp its military command structure should help the NATO member handle the alliance’s new regional defence plans and a host of hybrid threats including those from neighbouring Belarus. Bringing the leadership of the various branches of the armed forces together would make it easier to coordinate with other NATO troops on the alliance’s eastern border, the head of Poland’s National Bureau of Security told Reuters.

The new structure would help the nation effectively use massive equipment purchases the Law and Justice (PiS) government has implemented in response to the conflict in Ukraine.

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