2023-07-22

Armed pressure is heating instability in the East

Poland’s security committee decided in a meeting last Wednesday to move military units to the country’s east due to the Wagner Group’s presence in Belarus, as reported by Reuters. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was shown in a video the same day welcoming his fighters to Belarus, telling them they would take no further part in the Ukraine war for now but ordering them to gather their strength for Africa while they trained the Belarusian army. Armed pressure is heating up.

People living near Poland’s border with Belarus said on Thursday they could hear shooting and helicopters after Russia’s Wagner Group arrived to train Belarusian special forces, compounding their fears the Ukraine war would reach them.

Defense Minister Blasczak said earlier this month that Poland began moving over 1,000 troops to the east of the country. Moreover, at the beginning of July Poland said it would send 500 police to shore up security at the border with Belarus.

The armed forces of Belarus continue joint training with the fighters of the Wagner PMC (Private Military Company)“, the Belarusian defense ministry said. “During the week, special operations forces units together with representatives of the Company will work out combat training tasks at the Brest military range“. The range is just 3 miles (5 km) east of the Polish border.

Poland’s defense ministry said on Thursday that the country’s borders were secure and that it was ready for “various scenarios as the situation develops“. Asked about Poland’s move, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “Of course, it is a cause for concern. The aggressiveness of Poland is a reality”. “Such a hostile attitude towards Belarus and the Russian Federation requires heightened attention (from our side)“.

Wagner has lost 22,000 of its men in the Ukraine war while 40,000 have been wounded and up to 10,000 fighters will end up in Belarus, according to a post by a senior commander which was republished by Wagner’s Telegram channel.

Reuters could not confirm what looks like the most detailed breakdown of Wagner numbers for several months. But if accurate they give an insight into the extent of the losses both sides are suffering in the Ukraine war – and of the continued strength of one of the world’s most battle-hardened mercenary forces.

The senior commander known by his nom de guerre “Marx”, Wagner’s chief of staff, said in the post that a total of 78,000 Wagner men had participated in what he cast as “the Ukrainian business trip”, 49,000 of them prisoners.

Wagner helped Russia annex Crimea in 2014, fought Islamic State militants in Syria, operated in the Central African Republic and Mali, and took the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut for Russia earlier this year with considerable losses on both sides.

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